TECHCALLS

The Seven Mistakes All Novice Traders Make and How to Correct Them

2008-10-07T18:57:00.000-07:00

We learnt the following the hard way! If any of these things applies to you, don't worry – there is an easy solution!
MISTAKE ONE
Lack of Knowledge and No Plan
It amazes us that some people expect to trade the stock market successfully without any effort. Yet if they want to take up golf, for example, they will happily take some lessons or at least read a book before heading out onto the course.
The stock market is not the place for the ill informed. But learning what you need is straightforward – you just need someone to show you the way.
The opposite extreme of this is those traders who spend their life looking for the Holy Grail of trading! Been there, done that!
The truth is, there is no Holy Grail. But the good news is that you don't need it. Our trading system is highly successful, easy to learn and low risk.
MISTAKE TWO
Unrealistic Expectations
Many novice traders expect to make a gazillion dollars by next Thursday. Or they start to write out their resignation letter before they have even placed their first trade!
Now, don't get us wrong. The stock market can be a great way to replace your current income and for creating wealth but it does require time. Not a lot, but some.
So don't tell your boss where to put his job, just yet!
Other beginners think that trading can be 100% accurate all the time. Of course this is unrealistic. But the best thing is that with our methods you only need to get 50-60% of your trades "right" to be successful and highly profitable.
MISTAKE THREE
Listening to Others
When traders first start out they often feel like they know nothing and that everyone else has the answers. So they listen to all the news reports and so called "experts" and get totally confused.
And they take "tips" from their buddy, who got it from some cab driver…
We will show you how you can get to know everything you need to know and so never have to listen to anyone else, ever again!
MISTAKE FOUR
Getting in the Way
By this we mean letting your ego or your emotions get in the way of doing what you know you need to do.
When you first start to trade it is very difficult to control your emotions. Fear and greed can be overwhelming. Lack of discipline; lack of patience and over confidence are just some of the other problems that we all face.
It is critical you understand how to control this side of trading. There is also one other key that almost no one seems to talk about. But more on this another time!
MISTAKE FIVE
Poor Money Management
It never ceases to amaze us how many traders don't understand the critical nature of money management and the related area of risk management.
This is a critical aspect of trading. If you don't get this right you not only won't be successful, you won't survive!
Fortunately, it is not complex to address and the simple steps we can show you will ensure that you don't "blow up" and that you get to keep your profits.
MISTAKE SIX
Only Trading Market in One Direction
Most new traders only learn how to trade a rising market. And very few traders know really good strategies for trading in a falling market.
If you don't learn to trade "both" sides of the market, you are drastically limiting the number of trades you can take. And this limits the amount of money you can make.
We can show you a simple strategy that allows you to profit when stocks fall.
MISTAKE SEVEN
Overtrading
Most traders new to trading feel they have to be in the market all the time to make any real money. And they see trading opportunities when they're not even there (we’ve been there too).
We can show you simple techniques that ensure you only "pull the trigger" when you should. And how trading less can actually make you more!

Learn to Lose - The Key to Big Wins on the Stock Market By Scott Geer

2008-10-07T18:10:00.000-07:00

In life, you have to learn to walk before you can run. In the stock market, you have to learn to lose before you can truly win.
Sure, your first trade may be a winner, but to consistently make money in the stock market you have to learn how to lose. More to the point, you have to learn how to cut your losses.
The majority of people who dabble in the stock market see themselves as smart, educated and sharp. Self-belief is great. The most successful people in the world have a strong belief in themselves. Some of the most unsuccessful people in the world also have a strong belief in themselves. So what's the difference between the successful and the unsuccessful?
One major difference between successful traders and unsuccessful traders is the ability to admit when one is wrong. A successful trader will cut their losses before they get out of hand. An unsuccessful trader will let their losses grow in the false belief (hope) that things will pick up.
It would be nice if every stock pick was a winner, but when you get the odd loser you better make sure you cut that baby lose before you lose some big dollars.
The Stop-Loss
Before you even consider entering a trade, you should determine your stop-loss point. Your stop-loss point should be set at a price that you're willing to sell your stock at should things turn bad. The price you pick will vary depending on your financial position and the particular stock being considered.
You may want to set a stop-loss exactly 8% under your purchase price, or you may want to set it just below some clear resistance in a chart (if the stock falls below the resistance level, you can be fairly sure things will continue South for a while). The most important thing is to test your system. If you set your stop-loss too close, you'll never be in the game when the stock turns good. If you set your stop-loss too far away, you'll end up losing too much money.
Remember, the main aim is to make a profit across your entire portfolio. Imagine you owned $1000 worth of 5 different stock. You set a stop loss at 10% current market value; so if the value of a single stock drops to $900 you'll sell at that price. Even if you are wrong with 3 of the 5 picks (a $300 loss), you only need to make 15% on the remaining 2 stocks to break even. What if those remaining 2 stocks made 50% (which is very realistic if you pick your entry right).. You'd actually profit $700 across your entire portfolio despite the fact 60% of what you picked were duds! :)
Starting with 5 positions worth $1000 each: $50003 losing stocks lose 10% each: -$3002 winning stocks make 50% each: +$1000Total = $5700
Modern trading systems have completely automated stop-loss systems. This makes it so easy to set stop-losses that you have no excuses for losing big in a single trade anymore! In fact, you're mad if you don't take advantage of stop-losses. The only trick is setting them wisely. You'll learn how to plan and time your entry and exit points on this site over the next few months.
Until then, good luck and keep on learning..

12 Basic Stock Investing Rules Every Successful Investor Should Follow

2008-10-07T18:02:00.000-07:00

There are many important things you need to know to trade and invest successfully in the stock market or any other market. 12 of the most important things that I can share with you based on many years of trading experience are enumerated below.
1. Buy low-sell high. As simple as this concept appears to be, the vast majority of investors do the exact opposite. Your ability to consistently buy low and sell high, will determine the success, or failure, of your investments. Your rate of return is determined 100% by when you enter the stock market.
2. The stock market is always right and price is the only reality in trading. If you want to make money in any market, you need to mirror what the market is doing. If the market is going down and you are long, the market is right and you are wrong. If the stock market is going up and you are short, the market is right and you are wrong.
Other things being equal, the longer you stay right with the stock market, the more money you will make. The longer you stay wrong with the stock market, the more money you will lose.
3. Every market or stock that goes up will go down and most markets or stocks that have gone down, will go up. The more extreme the move up or down, the more extreme the movement in the opposite direction once the trend changes. This is also known as "the trend always changes rule."
4. If you are looking for "reasons" that stocks or markets make large directional moves, you will probably never know for certain. Since we are dealing with perception of markets-not necessarily reality, you are wasting your time looking for the many reasons markets move.
A huge mistake most investors make is assuming that stock markets are rational or that they are capable of ascertaining why markets do anything. To make a profit trading, it is only necessary to know that markets are moving - not why they are moving. Stock market winners only care about direction and duration, while market losers are obsessed with the whys.
5. Stock markets generally move in advance of news or supportive fundamentals - sometimes months in advance. If you wait to invest until it is totally clear to you why a stock or a market is moving, you have to assume that others have done the same thing and you may be too late.
You need to get positioned before the largest directional trend move takes place. The market reaction to good or bad news in a bull market will be positive more often than not. The market reaction to good or bad news in a bear market will be negative more often than not.
6. The trend is your friend. Since the trend is the basis of all profit, we need long term trends to make sizeable money. The key is to know when to get aboard a trend and stick with it for a long period of time to maximize profits. Contrary to the short term perspective of most investors today, all the big money is made by catching large market moves - not by day trading or short term stock investing.
7. You must let your profits run and cut your losses quickly if you are to have any chance of being successful. Trading discipline is not a sufficient condition to make money in the markets, but it is a necessary condition. If you do not practice highly disciplined trading, you will not make money over the long term. This is a stock trading “system” in itself.
8. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is fallacious and is actually a derivative of the perfect competition model of capitalism. The Efficient Market Hypothesis at root shares many of the same false premises as the perfect competition paradigm as described by a well known economist.
The perfect competition model is not based on anything that exists on this earth. Consistently profitable professional traders simply have better information - and they act on it. Most non-professionals trade strictly on emotion, and lose much more money than they earn.
The combination of superior information for some investors and the usual panic as losses mount caused by buying high and selling low for others, creates inefficient markets.
9. Traditional technical and fundamental analysis alone may not enable you to consistently make money in the markets. Successful market timing is possible but not with the tools of analysis that most people employ.
If you eliminate optimization, data mining, subjectivism, and other such statistical tricks and data manipulation, most trading ideas are losers.
10. Never trust the advice and/or ideas of trading software vendors, stock trading system sellers, market commentators, financial analysts, brokers, newsletter publishers, trading authors, etc., unless they trade their own money and have traded successfully for years.
Note those that have traded successfully over very long periods of time are very few in number. Keep in mind that Wall Street and other financial firms make money by selling you something - not instilling wisdom in you. You should make your own trading decisions based on a rational analysis of all the facts.
11. The worst thing an investor can do is take a large loss on their position or portfolio. Market timing can help avert this much too common experience.
You can avoid making that huge mistake by avoiding buying things when they are high. It should be obvious that you should only buy when stocks are low and only sell when stocks are high.
Since your starting point is critical in determining your total return, if you buy low, your long term investment results are irrefutably better than someone that bought high.
12. The most successful investing methods should take most individuals no more than four or five hours per week and, for the majority of us, only one or two hours per week with little to no stress involved.

MICRO INKS - Worth Investing

2008-10-05T04:53:00.000-07:00

Micro Inks is a Rs 1,200-crore company and manufactures various kinds of inks, pigments, intermediates and enamels. It is the largest integrated player in the segment and sells the complete range of inks and intermediates in India and over 70 countries.

Initially promoted by the Bilakhia group, Micro Inks was acquired by Germany-based Huber group two years ago. While the Huber group holds over 70% in Micro Inks, the original promoter has now just over 4% equity in the company.

BUSINESS: At present, the company has six plants in India, mostly in the western region, and an overseas unit in the US. It has a capacity to produce 3.03 lakh tonnes of printing ink and 52,600 tonnes of resins per annum. Exports contribute 55% to its revenue. Micro Inks’ major overseas markets include the US, France, Austria, China and Hong Kong.

Last year, the company commissioned a backward integration project to manufacture intermediates for captive consumption. The project is likely to optimise Micro Inks’ input costs and make it more competitive versus its peers.

FINANCIALS: The company follows a January-December financial year and has just announced results for Q2 ’08. It net sales rose 17.67% to Rs 322.56 crore over the corresponding quarter last year. Raw material costs during the quarter came down 60.92% of net sales, which was 64.2% as last year corresponding quarter which is healthy 328bsp improvement.

Thanks to strong internal accruals over the past few years, the debt-equity ratio progressively declined to a low of 0.3 times at the end of ’07. However, since Micro Ink is heavily dependent on export revenues, the rising rupee has impacted its bottomline. Following the recent change in accounting guidelines for forex derivatives, the company reported a mark-to-market losses of Rs 3.18 crore on its outstanding forex derivatives contracts. But the losses were more than compensated by the price rise in global markets. Micro Inks’ net profit during Q2 rose to Rs 17.78 crore against Rs 13.71 crore in Q2 ’07.

VALUATIONS: The change in ownership has given Micro Inks a major boost, as its German parent has been focusing on getting a higher market share for the company in the US, European and Chinese markets. With the rupee now depreciating against the dollar, the company stands a good chance to gain further market share overseas. Further , lower crude prices would reduce its raw material costs which is directly co-related to the crude prices. Hence, we may further expect improvement in operating and net profit margins.

As Micro Inks reported an EPS of Rs 19 in Q1 + Q2, there is a possibility it may end ’08 with EPS of Rs 38-40. This means it is trading at just 4.6 times its forward EPS at current market price of Rs 145.80. This offers a good upside potential for investors over 9-12 months.

I initiate a price target of Rs340 over next 3-6 months which holds potential return of approx 86%. Downside seems limited. So risk-reward would favour the investors.

ref: economictimes

from kinuttu....